Republics of Russia Creative Commons Share Alike License International by Kwamikagami courtesy of Wikimedia Commons

Chris Snow, at Medium, reflects on the past and future coming apart of Russia.  Excerpt:

The darkest scenario for such a collapse would be a “Yugoslavia on steroids” 1917 style civil war, which includes the risk of nuclear war

Russia follows an imperialist cycle, which culminated in agony and death of a Moscow centered state twice in the last 100 years. The frequent collapse of Russia has macroeconomic, social, political, and geographical reasons.

Those bound to the apparatus of power and the imperial project of the Tsars are both victims and perpetrators of this 300 years long vicious circle of expansion, resurgence, and collapse.

How might such a collapse play out?

Which new states might emerge from the chaos?

What is the timeframe of such a collapse?

…

This scenario will lead to a loss in state connectivity, failing health services, and an alienation of Russia’s citizens from state power. The consequences would be the likely proliferation of nuclear weapons and the displacement of millions of people. War and civil unrest within Russia, and a spillover to the Eurasian continent or Africa can’t be ruled out.

1. An impasse or outright defeat on the frontline,

2. A total or partial economic or communicational collapse in Russia

3. Reduction of the provincial budget with increasing transfer to the core

4. Protests and attempts at greater economic and political autonomy or independence

The West must have a contingency plan in place to manage this potential collapse

Glory to Ukraine!