Pyrrhus, whose name became a byword for victory at unacceptably heavy losses. Public domain, courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.

Public intellectual and wise observer Noah Smith, in his blog, sums up the state of the war. What a Pyrrhic victory it has been for Russia, what a magnificent achievement by Ukraine.  Excerpt:

Russia started this war with an attempt to capture the entire country of Ukraine, not just a strip of territory along the edge. Remember, in early 2022, most of the fighting was Russia trying to capture Kyiv in the north, along with Kharkiv in the northeast and Odesa in the southwest. …

Ukraine completely defeated this assault, expelling Russia from the entire area around Kyiv. In follow-up counteroffensives later in 2022, it expelled Russia from around Kharkiv, and from the city of Kherson in the south, ending the danger to Odesa. Russia, for its part, was only able to seize a few more small towns in the Donbas region.

This was an incredible feat on Ukraine’s part. At the time, Russia was ranked as the world’s 2nd most powerful military, with Ukraine far down the list. And yet Ukraine was able to defeat Russia’s offensive in a stand-up conventional fight, rather than a guerrilla war (which is usually how small countries defeat more powerful ones). That is an incredible accomplishment. …

Part of Ukraine’s success was due to the changing nature of warfare, favoring the defense. Part was due to sloppy Russian preparation. And of course it couldn’t have been done without the weapons donated by the U.S. and other NATO countries. But it’s still an incredibly impressive accomplishment.

…

According to recently declassified U.S. intelligence estimates, Putin’s military has taken 315,000 casualties (dead and wounded). That’s almost half again as many as the 218,000 casualties that the U.S. took in the entire Vietnam War. …

…  Only by throwing Russia’s entire economy and society into the effort has Putin managed to maintain battlefield parity with a poor country less than one-fourth Russia’s size. And even more importantly, Russia has lost massive numbers of tanks and other armored vehicles — by some estimates as many as 4000 tanks! — basically running down the huge arsenal bequeathed to them by the Soviets.

…

Now suppose what would happen if an armistice ended the war tomorrow. Russia would have won this war. Wikipedia will list Russia as the winner of the war, and I, a staunch Ukraine supporter, will declare Russia the victor. But it will be a Pyrrhic victory. Seizing a modest portion of a much poorer, weaker, smaller country, at the cost of 315,000 casualties and much of your stockpile of armored vehicles, is not a great trade. …

Even worse, Russia’s strategic position has been weakened by the war. Finland has now joined NATO, and Sweden looks sure to follow. That’s a heavy blow, considering that the old Soviet Union used to pride itself on keeping Finland out of the Western bloc. NATO now basically controls the Baltic Sea. Meanwhile, Russia’s economy has become much more dependent on China, making Russia clearly the subordinate partner in that quasi-alliance.

Ukraine, if all fighting stopped tomorrow, would have lost a significant chunk of its territory — almost a fifth, if you count the 2014 losses. But in return, it would have gained something much more important — its independence as a nation. Ukraine has never really been a fully independent nation before now; this is its war of national self-definition. When it was threatened with conquest, its people united, stood up, and fought for their freedom.

Glory to Ukraine!