Last week, Ukraine carried out one of its most ambitious operations of the war using more than 100 drones to damage dozens of military aircraft at multiple air bases deep inside Russia. …

Russia, by contrast, has spent the past 17 months attempting to grind forward in Ukraine with brute force — and according to new data, it has little to show for its efforts.

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Russia has also consistently lost 2 to 5 times more fighting vehicles than Ukraine on the battlefield, including roughly 1,200 armored fighting vehicles, 3,200 infantry fighting vehicles and 1,900 tanks since January 2024.

This brutal reality challenges the narrative that Russia is dictating the terms of the conflict. Yes, Russian forces have been on the offensive since early 2024 (with a limited number of exceptions). But initiative alone is not victory. What matters is not just what Russia has gained, but also what it has lost in exchange.

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Putin is betting that political fatigue in Washington will deliver him what his military cannot. That bet extends to the negotiating table. Despite Russia’s limited gains and mounting losses, Moscow has shown little interest in serious diplomacy, insisting on maximalist terms while launching new attacks. But beneath the bluster lies a far weaker hand than many in the West assume.

The United States has leverage. But it needs to wield it. U.S. policymakers should evaluate options to extend and accelerate military assistance to Ukraine, particularly air defense systems to protect Ukrainian troops and civilians alike, long-range precision strike systems to target Russian airfields and command hubs, and munitions to repel Russian assaults across an extended front. The United States should also raise the economic costs of continued war on Moscow. Congress is currently considering bipartisan legislation to impose new sanctions on Russia and secondary sanctions on countries enabling Russia’s wartime economy. One analysis suggests that secondary sanctions could cut Russian oil revenue by 20 percent while raising U.S. gas prices by just 15 cents a gallon.

Russia is not on the march. It is bleeding personnel and equipment for mere meters of ground. And it will only translate into victory if Washington lets it.”

Slava Ukraine!