There are now two views of Russia’s economy. One, touted by Russian President Vladimir Putin, is that the Russian economy has proved surprisingly resilient and is strong enough to sustain his grandiose goals, which include not only maintaining Russia’s war in Ukraine but also expanding and upgrading its military so that it could one day take on NATO. …

The other view of Russia’s economy is that it is bound to one day collapse. But neither is entirely correct. Russia’s ability to build a strong-enough military to truly challenge NATO over the long run is constrained by mounting fiscal pressures, an overstretched labor market, sanctions that block access to critical technologies, and a defense industry already working at full capacity. According to defense experts, it will probably take Russia between seven and ten years to reconstitute its military forces—that is, replenish depleted weapons stockpiles, replace heavy equipment losses, and rebuild troop strength and combat readiness. …

… To defeat Putin’s grand goals, the United States and European countries must get a better grasp on the specific long-term vulnerabilities of the Russian economy and start exploiting them now.

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Russia’s fiscal indicators are flashing red.

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Russia is caught in a bind: any attempt to rapidly cut defense expenditures would trigger economic collapse, but maintaining current military spending levels would perpetuate stagnation. Moscow can neither sustain indefinite military spending nor safely transition back to a civilian economy without demobilizing and getting some relief from sanctions.

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The United States and Europe cannot bank on Russia’s economy simply falling apart.

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The United States and Europe must act with urgency: pressing their advantages while Russia remains constrained rather than waiting for the Kremlin to get back on its feet.

Slava Ukraine!