Map of Ukraine and Russian-invaded territory ,Wikimedia Commons, public domain 

Ace veteran political operative Karl Rove assesses the three scenarios for Ukraine and their potential consequences for Donald Trump, Ukraine, America and the world:

Politically, there appear to be three possible outcomes for Mr. Trump.

One is that the American president becomes as tough on Mr. Putin as he has been on Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky. Then he could play a pivotal role in getting Russia and Ukraine to arrive at a deal that results in a durable peace.

Ukraine would remain independent and again become prosperous. Europe would become more secure. By ending a war that’s taking an enormous toll on the Russian Federation, Moscow, while seriously tarnished by its brutal invasion, could gingerly attempt to escape its economic and geopolitical isolation.

If Mr. Trump brokered a successful deal, the talk of his receiving the Nobel Peace Prize would spread beyond Turning Point USA gatherings.

…

The second possible outcome: If Russia and Ukraine can’t come to an agreement, the conflict would rage on over battlefields filled with dead soldiers from both countries as Moscow keeps pounding civilian targets from the sky.

A failure to come to an agreement would hurt Mr. Trump’s reputation as a strong leader and a great deal-maker.

…

Then there’s the third possible outcome—a Russian victory. This could happen if there’s no agreement. It could also happen if Russia agreed to something, broke its word as it has many times before, and then crushed Ukraine by brute force. It wouldn’t be easy; the cost in Russian lives would be enormous. Mr. Putin has shown he doesn’t care. An estimated one million of his soldiers have been killed or wounded as he has thrown raw recruits into combat with only three weeks of training.

In addition to being the worst possible outcome morally and geopolitically, this third possibility is the worst scenario for the president and the GOP.

The defeat of Ukraine by Russia would be similarly disastrous for Mr. Trump.

Slava Ukraine!