Russian poverty depicted as a woman sitting in the middle of a street in 2010 by Jerzy Gorecki, Courtesy of Wikimedia, PIxabay license 

Chris Snow at Medium on the Imploding Russian Economy:

Outlook and some thoughts on why Russia is an economic and military dwarf compared to Ukraine’s European allies even without the US.

Russia can still fund the war, however, however the facade is faltering. The “everything is fine” shtick in front of Moscow, and Petersburg audience is getting tougher to maintain. The next 6 months will be interesting in terms of inflation and how the Russian banks will be holding up.

With what is Russia going to attack Europe? Their 1950s tanks? Their broken navy? Their battered and averaged airforce?

Despite what many may think, the Russian economy is too small, and the Russian military cannot win a direct military confrontation with Ukraine’s European allies. Russia barely manages to keep the upper hand against Ukraine.

Europe sadly has no idea what to do with an either defeated or a victorious or even semi victorious Russia.

Europe is rearming faster and at a much larger scale compared to 2022 or even 2023. Russia can not even remotely replace its extremely high losses. We enable Ukraine to blow up the entire cold war stocks of Russia and everything they have stored and produced since the 1990s.

The Russian demographic situation was dire in 2022. One can only imagine how bad it is today.

If Europe and Russia would go to war, the Russian economy would collapse within weeks. Russia cannot do a thing about us blocking access to the Baltic Sea, and Russia cannot do a thing for a lack of airdefense against a shock and awe campaign. The result would be a massive famine and immiseration in Russia as it has not been seen since 1917.

Russia has neither the logistics, the necessary manpower industrial capacity, or monetary funds to attack Europe directly and kinetically.

In all other areas, we are at war with Russia. We are in a shadow war, an economic, cyber, systemic, info, and diplomatic war. In the case of a direct war, all deliveries of food and agricultural machinery would be stopped. All Russian gas and oil tankers would be seized, and the pipelines to China would go up in flames, together with the ports in Kaliningrad and in Murmansk…

Europe has 500 plus million citizens and an economy worth more than 20 trillion pitted against the Russian serf army that barely holds on against Ukraine.

Whenever I hear the Kremlin threatening us with invasion, I cannot help but wonder what the hell these Russian regime members must be smoking. Russia can obviously scale up low-tech drones or artillery rounds.

However, the new production of T90 M tanks sits at 180 to 200 a year, and most of their tanks are old and not ready for modern combat. Russia is still losing 4 tanks on average per day. The rest must be supplemented with dwindling stocks of artillery and tanks and 1960s BT1s.

Industrial scale, exponential growth, and logistics are areas where Russia loses big time against Europe.

The Rheintmetall plants inside Ukraine are close to running at full capacity. Other European investments will soon bear fruit. Poland has arguably a more powerful land army than Russia. Plus, despite what some may say, Ukraine is the defender and, therefore, wins the war by not losing it. Russia will most likely never achieve her lofty objectives.

With every day of war, Russia is getting weaker and more exhausted, while NATO has not deployed a single soldier herself yet.

In 20 years, the Russian Empire will have long ceased to exist. The Russian oil reserves will be gone by 2035. The generation that is currently brainwashed in Russia to hate the West will soon enough spend their their days trying to find or harvest food. Another likely outcome is that these Russian kids will be slaving away for their new Chinese overlords and ask Europe for handouts.

However, we gave Russia handouts twice in 1917, and 1991.

Russia cannot get away with her many crimes. Just mercy is best given to those most undeserving of it. However, not right away. First, Russia must be brought to justice and pay for what they have done in Ukraine in monetary, legal, and moral terms.

In sum, Russia is a development country. This failed state is only a shadow of the Soviet Union.

Russia has spent almost 12 years and a million+ dead and wounded to make it halfway through the donetsk oblast in their snail paced advance. In the meantime, Poland has armed itself to the teeth, Germany, France Italy and many others have rearmed and a lot more money and effort will follow in the years to come.

Russia simply cannot keep up as the sinews of war are infinite gold, and the corrupt serf empire army could only win a surprise victory. In a long, drawn-out war of attrition, they are hopelessly outgunned, outspent, and outmatched.

Slava Ukraine!