cartoon by birkho under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license courtesy of Wikimedia

Nadin Brzenzinsky at Medium, observes “signals that instability in the Kremlin is increasing.”

The Kremlin continues to avoid adopting overtly repressive measures likely out of concern for the stability of Putin’s regime. The Russian government withdrew a bill from the Russian State Duma that would have increased taxes from 13 to 30 percent for Russians who have fled the country.[11] Russian ultranationalists have repeatedly called on the Kremlin to nationalize property belonging to Russians who had “betrayed” the country by fleeing, but the Kremlin appears to remain hesitant to introduce such unpopular measures. Unnamed sources told Russian independent outlet Verska that the Russian presidential administration does not support the return of capital punishments in Russia — another issue that recently reemerged in Russian policy discussions.[12] The Kremlin could use the threat of the death penalty to scare Russians into supporting the war effort (or remaining passively resistant to it), but Putin likely remains hesitant to destroy his image as a diplomatic and tolerant tsar. ISW previously assessed that Putin relies on controlling the information space to safeguard his regime much more than the kind of massive oppression apparatus of the Soviet Union and that Putin has never rebuilt an internal repression apparatus equivalent to the KGB, Interior Ministry forces, and the Red Army.[13]

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Now on a larger piece, apparently, Vladimir Putin was driven to the Kremlin overnight. There is a lot of speculation as to why. So here are two versions. I will add a third; the front is starting to heat up with shaping operations:

Putin’s cortege raced unscheduledly in the evening towards the Kremlin. The media are building versions of the president’s emergency visit to the workplace: from Erdogan’s disease to confiscation of assets in Poland.

There were rumors that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had a heart attack. This is now getting disputed. But what is true is that meetings were indeed canceled.

And a change at the top of the leadership in Turkey will prove democracy works. This is dangerous for Russia. While many have given up on Turkish democracy, perhaps this is too early.

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Putin is a typical psychopath, and losing control of himself, says American neuroscientist, professor at the University of California James Fallon. “Putin’s facial expressions also speak of Putin’s failures,” the American professor notes. He became more like a wild animal in a cage. But that only made him more dangerous.”

Some we have heard before, which brings me back to Turkey. If Erdogan loses, this will not be received well by Moscow. It will be another Orange revolution of sorts. I see the influence of the ultranationalist right as well. It is evident in how Putin speaks.

This war is making the regime unstable. A defeat could bring the country to the conditions of the early 1990s. The vertical of power, which also relies on patronage networks, will suffer. It could also go away. The pressure towards disolución is increasing.

Glory to Ukraine!