Headlined “The Man Who Would Change Russia”, Melnichenko’s intervention was a calculated attempt to signal a potential off-ramp from the Ukraine war – both to Western leaders and their voters.

He is not a dissident. …

In essence, the demand is for “sovereignty”: stop fantasising about defeating us in the “30 years war” Putin has declared against the West, and instead build conditions for Russian re-entry into Europe’s security architecture: that’s the essence of Melnichenko’s manifesto. Ignore the opportunity, he says, and we run the risk of conventional or even nuclear war with NATO.

…

But as the regime totters – its oil infrastructure and food distribution system in flames due to Ukrainian deep strikes – we’re stepping forward to offer the West a de-escalation path.

Freeze the Ukrainian front lines. Disavow any idea of breaking up the Russian Federation, or pursuing its key players Nuremberg style, and accept co-existence, with Ukrainian neutrality as the precondition.

…

But we have to be aware that Melnichenko’s intervention may be something more than just a Kremlin gambit. It could, indeed, represent a signal either from within the security elite or the business oligarchy that – should they find a window from which to push the president – they might be open to a strategic deal with the West.

Imagine the scenario: Putin dies; his closest henchmen are arrested or flee. A Melnichenko-like figure emerges playing the same geopolitical lounge music as the guy in the Economist photoshoot. At this point, in alliance with the outright Putin-understanders, a whole layer of the Western business and political elite says: let’s do a deal.

Slava Ukraine!