Russian Central Bank headquarters,  by Ludvig14, Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International, courtesy of Wikipedia

Chris Snow, at Medium, exposes the extreme fragility of the Russian Federation economy.  Excerpt:

The international purchasing power of Russia has heavily decreased in the past 10 years.

Once we adjust the Russian GDP growth figures with the lower rubble, we can see that the Ruble dollar value came down by over 30 percent. The adjusted index is, therefore, down to 84, with 100 as the baseline. The Russian purchasing power fell significantly. Russia is much worse off than they were 6 years ago.

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Logic and common sense dictate that the most sanctioned nation on earth, locked in a war of attrition, prospers only on Kremlin spreadsheets.

Despite their high GDP growth, Russia can buy fewer goods for the same money. Russia is importing almost everything from agricultural materials, weapon components, and computer chips from abroad.

Russia had 6 percent wage growth and 9 percent official inflation. Wage growth in 2023 was in the double digits.

Russia had a 6 percent unemployment rate in 2020. The rate went down to 2.4 percent in 2024. There are not enough people in Russia to fill the open positions. The USA has a healthy 4.3 percent unemployment rate in July 2024 and a solid GDP growth rate.

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Systemic issues exacerbate quality and quantity concerns regarding Russian pension fund data indicates a 30 percent increase to 500.000 disabled Russian men in 2023.

Interest rates are at 18 percent. The soldiers want to keep spending. Many of them never had that much money. These men are probably dead soon. They splash that money on luxuries and see little sense in long-term investments or saving up money.

Borrowing costs are increasing. The best way to stop the war economy from overheating would be to stop the war. I doubt Russia will choose that option.

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Russia cannot afford to win the war. They cannot afford to lose it either.

The Western alliance cannot give Russia even an inch or one single concession. Any compromise with tyranny would be a devastating defeat and a great victory for all tyrants around the globe.

We cannot formalize and normalize this imperial landgrab and this mass murder.

This would cause massive diplomatic, geo-political, economic, and military problems. As long as Western aid flows, Ukraine will not lose on the battlefield.

Slava Ukraine!