Flag of Turkey, public domain, courtesy of Wikimedia

Rich Outzen courtesy of The Atlantic Council describes a potential role by Turkey in ending Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine on mulitlaterally viable terms.  Excerpt:

As a major military and diplomatic power committed both to Ukraine’s survival and a modus vivendi with Russia, Turkey possesses tools to prevent escalation by Russia (as shown by its ability to push back or deter Russia in Libya and Syria) and to position itself as a country that can offer an off-ramp from war that all sides may actually support. Over the past thirty months, Ankara has given military support to Ukraine, traded with both Russia and Ukraine, convened negotiations, restricted naval traffic into the Black Sea, and cautioned its allies about taking steps that could expand the scope of the conflict. The Turks have a great interest in seeing the war contained, de-escalated, and ended sooner rather than later.

Turkey, according to its vision for the Black Sea security, has been managing what can be described as a triangular balancing act between Russia, NATO countries in the region, and non-NATO Turkish allies on or near the Black Sea. By strengthening deterrence against Russia both directly (by boosting security cooperation with Ukraine and Azerbaijan) and indirectly (by strengthening NATO’s southeast through coordination with Bulgaria and Romania), while also maintaining trade and diplomatic ties with Moscow, Ankara aims to contain the tensions that are driving the war. Not all wars end with dramatic defeat or victory; some peter out or shift to a dormant phase after strategic stalemate. If aggressor and defender reach mutual exhaustion in the coming years, that may be the least bad option for Russia, Ukraine, the region, and the West—and it would leave the Turks in an optimal strategic position, provided a settlement and assurances are in place to prevent the conflict from reemerging.

Glory to Ukraine!