First Edition, Gibbon’s Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, 1776

Understanding why Putin invaded Ukraine can help accelerate Russia’s ending of hostilities.

Chris Snow, at Medium, on the rise and fall of the Soviet Empire (Part 1), provides enough revelations for more than one blog of which this is the first.  Excerpt:

A deeper knowledge of geo-politics helps us to understand why nations wage a war.

The first phase was the decline of the Soviet Empire (1970s and 80s), this was followed by a second phase of decentralization and consolidation (1989–2014). The third phase was the stagnation of their empire (2014–2022) The fourth phase of the collapse is the failing war of expansion (2022 — ?).

The fifth phase marks the next collapse of the Moscow centered state, and this will be its last. The phases four and five are a complex and evolving process and not a single event.

“An empire founded by war has to maintain itself by war.” Montesquieu

Since 2022, Russian hard and soft power has been eroding at an ever hastening pace. The fourth phase of this collapse is characterized by an increasing decentralisation of power. The Russian near abroad are in varying stages of this decentralisation process.

Ukraine’s valor in battle has set the stage for the final conclusion of the Cold War.

The Russian monopoly on organised violence and her hard power are eroding. The nations that are still under Russia’s sway will sense the weakness of the center and make their play.

…

Several former Soviet/Russian aligned nations are pivoting away. Russia can no longer rule with fear. Her military is bottled up in Ukraine.

In the 2020s, Russia’s “near abroad” has been trying to escape Moscow’s grip with varying success. These tendencies could be observed in Armenia, Moldova, Syria, Georgia, Serbia, Ukraine, Belarus, Chechnya, Central Asia, and even in Kursk.

The fifth stage will lead to the partial or total political, economic, and military collapse of Russian imperialism.

The collapse will bring food shortages, reversed industrialization, de-industrialization, and ultimately, this could lead to a “failed state” and the rupture of Russia. The Wagner coup attempt has shown that even a war of the diadochi and another 1917-style civil war is in the cards.

Individuals and states go bankrupt in a similar way. First, gradually, and then all of a sudden.

The free world must prepare for the next wave of the collapsing Soviet Empire. The Russian Federation will share the fate of the Soviet Union. When the Cold War ended, the influence of this former Superpower waned. Much of its former might had collapsed long before the full-scale invasion and the Russian “twilight war.”

The remnants of the Soviet Empire are still dangerous. Russia is a wounded bear that is fighting till its last breath.

The dissolution of the Russian Federation will stand at the end of this lengthy process. I had forecasted the disintegration of the remaining security architecture of Russia. This process is now in full swing. The fall of Assad and the Russian failure to assist Armenia mark only the beginning of the end.

Glory to Ukraine!