Public Domain, courtesy of Wikimedia Authors: Elembis, Sammy pompon and Mark Miller (Previouly Amadscientist)

Niall Ferguson asks “Is Peace at Hand in Ukraine?”  Excerpt:

This week, my train in Ukraine was almost hit by a Russian drone. It sent the same message that aggressors have been sending since the earliest days of siege warfare: Be afraid.

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The recent U.S. visitors to Moscow offered Putin a stark choice: “Press on with the war and we will continue to provide the Ukrainians with targeting intelligence; or settle this diplomatically and we can give you the kind of economic rehabilitation you will not get from anyone else.” As usual, the Kushner-Witkoff team approaches a classic diplomatic problem—how to end a war—with the techniques of the New York real estate market. In effect, the Ukrainians are being told to sell the remaining territory they control in Donetsk at an attractive price in the form of postwar funding for reconstruction and investment. Note that much of this is supposed to come from private-sector entities such as Blackrock, whose CEO, Larry Fink, has not been reticent in pledging to invest in Ukraine.

The Russians, meanwhile, will get sanctions relief if they renounce their earlier demands for regime change in Ukraine. The presence of a representative of the U.S. Treasury in Moscow and Kyiv was significant in this regard: Gene Lange, who accompanied Kushner and Witkoff, is the acting head of the U.S. Treasury Department’s sanctions unit.

The Americans believe Putin is more open to this argument than previously.

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I remain doubtful that such a compromise peace can be signed and successfully implemented. Putin may play along, but he will continue to hammer the Ukrainians in the belief that further battlefield gains are achievable. Zelensky may need a ceasefire, but he would surely not survive politically if he relinquished territory Ukraine has succeeded in defending. Nevertheless, I would not be surprised by an announcement that “peace is at hand.” …